Gold price analysis has its certain specificity: for one thing, gold is a scarce substance. Its formation requires special geological conditions and a long time. Therefore, the annual production of gold is quite limited. Regardless of how drastic fluctuations in the price of gold, gold production in the short term are difficult to change. Secondly, governments and international financial institutions have strategic needs for holding and selling gold, and are not sensitive to short-term fluctuations in the price of gold. And gold jewelry is mainly to meet the needs of decoration, even if the price of gold fluctuations, gold jewelry regeneration and then form the supply of gold is also very limited. Gold jewelry-based private gold stock on gold price fluctuations have a certain degree of inertia.

Gold's financial and monetary attributes determine the price analysis of gold needs a more macroscopic vision. in 1976 the international monetary fund adopted the "jamaica agreement" and two years later on the agreement to modify the program to determine the credit currency has become the international monetary system of the native system. Its price is determined by its purchasing power and the extent to which people are willing to accept it, and this acceptance is in turn related to the economic size, political stability, and governmental creditworthiness of the currency-issuing government.

1. International Geopolitics

In the credit currency era, once the international political situation has changed significantly, the government issued credit currency represents the ability to settle debts and purchasing power will be revalued, will lead to fluctuations in the price of gold (the ratio of credit currency to gold). Moreover, a serious geopolitical crisis will lead to a certain degree of return of the credit currency standard to the gold standard.

2. International economic situation

When the international economic situation is stable and developing well, it means that other areas are full of investment opportunities, and the capital stock and flow of the gold market will be reduced in the short term, and the price of gold is on a downward trend. The opposite is true. If the international economic situation is facing the risk of inflation or into recession, the gold market capital stock and flow in the short term will increase, the price of gold is upward trend. It should be noted in particular that the economic performance of the United States will have a special impact on the price of gold, the closest relationship. The reason is: in today's global integration, the United States economy on the world economy has a huge impact; the United States is the world's largest gold reserve countries, far ahead of other countries and international institutions; international gold to the dollar price. The appreciation of the dollar will prompt a fall in the price of gold, and vice versa, push it up, the United States interest rate cut in October, so that the price of gold appeared to be crazy is an example. However, in some special time, especially the gold trend is very strong or very weak period, the gold price will also get rid of the influence of the U.S. dollar, out of the trend alone, the past ten years the gold price and the U.S. dollar trend there is 80% of the inverse correlation.

3. International financial shape nu

Including the conversion of the currency carrier, currency exchange rate mechanism to determine the changes in the international financial situation will have a medium and long term impact on the price of gold, while interest rates, money supply adjustment and other changes in the financial situation will have a short-term impact on the price of gold.

4. International investment market capital flow

International investment market capital will be in the global stock, foreign exchange, gold, commodity futures and other financial and derivative products market constantly adjust the stock and flow of the structure, which leads to the stock index, currency exchange rate, commodity futures and gold price fluctuations in different directions of the adjustment of the stock and flow of the international investment market capital in the gold market will also affect the gold price trend.